Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (24.10.22-30.10.22)

The Ukrainian political process during this period was mainly influenced by the threat of an escalation of the military conflict. There is an actual risk that the Russian government can increase the level of violence on the pretext of Ukrainian plans to use a radioactive “dirty bomb”. Such claims were made by Russian high-ranking state officials including the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and repeated by president Putin in his speech at the Valdai Club discussion forum on October 27.

The Ukrainian government in its turn strongly denies these accusations and considers them to be further confirmation that the Kremlin seeks the justification for the continuation of destruction of infrastructure objects.

At the same time, Ukraine launched a strike on Sevastopol, devoid of any real military significance, which was supposed to provoke a response from Russia. It has install a mechanism for an escalation of the conflict because of the mutual desire for retaliation.

The Russian combat losses caused by the Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol might be insignificant (though it is hard to determine their actual level). But there should be no doubt that the Russian government suffered a huge political blow as it was in as in the case of the Crimea bridge.

The Ukrainian army has been carrying out military actions that are aimed at undermining positions of the Russian military and political leadership. So the Kremlin in retaliation commits attacks on infrastructure objects in order to exhibit its ability to damage the Ukrainian cities and transportation roots. Now when Russia seems to be unable to achieve any significant victory on the battlefield these attacks are gaining importance as the part of the Russian military strategy. So the Russian government will keep on using the Ukrainian strikes on troops and equipment in the rear as the pretext for fierce retaliation blows. However the Russian response will have to remain comparatively limited unless something extraordinary happens like the explosion of the so called “dirty bomb”.

It should be noted that Ukraine, thanks to its scientific potential, is capable of making a device that combines a conventional explosive with radioactive material. But the usage of such a device has no sense for Ukraine because it will not be able to bring any damage to Russian troops and will just become the source of radioactive pollution of a part of the Ukrainian territory.

Russia, in its turn, will currently restrain from using of non-conventional weapons, because it does not want to risk being considered a rogue state ahead of the G20 summit.

But Russia will certainly use the Ukrainian strikes as the pretext for destroying Ukrainian economy and infrastructure. After the attack on Sevastopol Moscow proclaimed that it is going to withdraw from a grain deal because according to the Russian accusations Ukraine was using a safety corridor to attack Russian fleet. There is no doubt that Russia will try to do its best to impede the grain export from Ukraine first of all by destroying facilities and equipment of Ukrainian ports.

But it should be taken into consideration that the incumbent government has to keep on attacking Russian rear to compensate the lack of remarkable success at the front. The expectations from the offensive against Russian troops concentrated in the iKherson region seem to be exaggerated.

Obviously, the Russian military leadership is not going to order the troops to leave Kherson. The liberation of this city would become not only a military success, but also a major political achievement for President Zelensky. But now it appears to be postponed and the Ukrainian is trying to minimize the political consequences of the delay.

Besides, president Zelensky needs to bring about the images of remarkable military achievements in the public mind to convince the Ukrainian society to endure difficulties caused by the war. The socio-cultural characteristics of Ukrainian society give reasons to expect that it will make sacrifices to support the army conducting offensive operations. And the strikes on the Russian rear allows the government to persuade the public that the enemy is being defeated despite the lack of significant success on the front-line.

Prospects of the development of current situation:

If Russia manages to use its withdrawal form grain deal for destroying of the Ukrainian port infrastructure the export earnings would be drastically diminished (according to existing estimates, up to two billion dollars a month). It would inevitably cause further devaluation of the national currency and destabilize the financial system. In order to prevent further infrastructure destruction Kyiv will be compelled to strongly demand from the US and EU to provide air defense systems as soon as possible.

The events of the last week indicate that there is a threat of further escalation of the conflict. If Russia keeps on destroying Ukrainian infrastructure the Ukrainian government will have to reinvigorate offensive operations. It can expected that in that case Ukraine will try to launch a new counteroffensive again, depending on favorable weather conditions.

As we predicted in last week’s analytical report, Ukraine has already requested electricity imports from the EU. Which most likely will not be able to pay, and the EU will be forced to provide it as a gift, which will become another financial burden for the countries supporting Ukraine.

Recommendation for the European institutions and organizations:

All the major Ukrainian political players express their full support for the policy pursued by President Zelensky. The Ukrainian opposition political actors are afraid to even speak out about the possible prospects and conditions for a peaceful settlement. In this regard, European political structures interested in devising conditions of the peaceful reconciliation of the conflict should cooperate for the most part with the representatives of the Ukrainian expert community and civil society.