Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects
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A sudden demarche of Zelensky in Washington which provoked his public argument with president Trump gave the US administration a a pretext to deny any responsibility for supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggression. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06tvV9zROps
Zelensky still wants to persuade the Ukrainian public opinion that Russia can be defeated on the battlefield in order to continue the hostilities and preserve his political dominance. Thus he needs to create an impression that the US is going to support Ukraine until it gets an opportunity to negotiate preferable conditions of a truce. Trump for his part intends to achieve an immediate cease-fire, which would allow him to be perceived as a peacemaker, but would not hinder his strategy to restore relations with Russia.
It is certainly not the best outcome for Ukraine. But it is the only actual chance to avoid a prolongation of hostilities which will inevitably bring Ukraine to the brink of a military upset and social disturbance. Zelensky and his associates are dismayed by by the U-turn in the US foreign policy brought about by Trump’s desire to prevent close relations between Russia and China. Therefore, Zelensky cannot accept the situation and keep on trying to contradict Trump’s efforts to intentions cease-fire by asserting that Russia should be first frightened by a prospect of the continuation of the war thanks to the increase of the US military support to Ukraine. It is a senseless tactic which only allows the new US administration to refuse to fulfill its obligations to counter the Russian aggression, but Zelensky has been acting the same way since Trump came to power.
Zelensky had an angry disagreement with a member of the US administration before his last visit to Washington. The Ukrainian president shouted at US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during their meeting in Kiev, took place on Wednesday, February 12. Zelensky became furious when he heard the proposal of a contract regarding the extraction of strategic minerals, which he agreed to sign in several days. The agreement proposed by Trump did not contain any security guarantees for Kiev, which Zelensky would like to obtain in order to retain his image as a successful political leader. However, it is highly unlikely that such guarantees can be given by Trump and Zelensky, insisting on them, has been just undermining his relations with the US president. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/swiat/artykuly/9746576,wolodymyr-zelenski-wpadl-w-szal-krzyczal-na-urzednika-trumpa.html
The only possible result of such behavior can be the termination of the US military and financial support to Ukraine which is being strongly considered by the Trump’s administration. It has been reported that the US president is going to suspend all future deliveries of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/03/trump-presidency-news.
It will not only limit Ukraine’s capability to withstand increasing Russian pressure on the battlefield, but undermine resilience of the Ukrainian society and demoralize the exhausted troops on the front-line. The EU will have to dramatically intensify its efforts in order to avoid the collapse of the Ukrainian defense, which without the US military aid can only be postponed but not prevented entirely.
The Ukrainian government has been trying to obtain NATO’s assurance of security guarantees that will prevent further aggression of Russia in case the truce is established. To achieve this the President’s Office Yermak in his remarks during a discussion at the Munich Security Conference threatened that without such guarantees Ukraine will have to develop its own nuclear weapons to obtain effective means of protection. It cannot be regarded as a careless statement, because it later appeared on the official website of the President of Ukraineh. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/garantii-opasnosti-zachem-zelenskiy-zanyalsya-yadernym-shantazhom-trampa
If such guarantees are provided by the NATO in the current situation, when the US administration has received an opportunity to cancel its obligations to support Ukraine, the EU countries will have to bear responsibility for both the development on the battlefield and the pacification. It is highly probable, that in that the Ukrainian defense would collapse before a truce is agreed, which would have detrimental effect on the EU position on the global level and its own integrity.
The Russian steady advance is linger on and in spite of all its heavy efforts, Ukraine has no military might to stop it. It has lost about 3,600 square kilometers of territory in all directions last year. Though, the pace of Russian advance is currently far below its peak in November, the exhausted Ukrainian troops will not be able to retain such important strongholds and transport hub as Pokrovsk. In the long run Russia seems destined to prevail on the battlefield and it can be prevented only by achieving a cease-fire. https://expres.online/spetstema-2/shchodnya-vtrachaemo-20-kvadratnikh-kilometriv-nashoi-zemli-vorozha-armiya-prosuvaetsya-na-vsikh-napryamkakh
Former advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs and head of the President’s Office, and now a military officer, Viktor Andrusiv said that Russian advancement that has lasted over a year should be regarded as a disaster for the Ukrainian army, because it demoralized the troops on the front-line and the population of the war affected regions. https://fakty.ua/449797-my-uzhe-vse-proigrali-analiz-sostoyaniya-istocsheniya-i-situacii-na-vnutrennem-informacionnom-pole
It should be noted that the Ukrainian administration has proved to be incapable of concentrating financial resources on the most important tasks. Though, the Russian troops approached town boundaries of Pokrovsk, its military-civilian administration provided 15 million hryvnias (350 000 euros) for media support, 73 million hryvnias (1,68 million euros) for the non-functioning water utility, 34 million hryvnias (780 000 euros) for landscaping, and 30 million hryvnias (690 000) for the central heating system, which has been damaged beyond repair. https://expres.online/spetstema-2/shchodnya-vtrachaemo-20-kvadratnikh-kilometriv-nashoi-zemli-vorozha-armiya-prosuvaetsya-na-vsikh-napryamkakh
The continuation of hostilities also threatens to impede Ukraine’s post- war economic recovery and reconstruction, which should be carried out mostly by the EU.
According to a new World Bank report, 524 billion USD are required to retore Ukraine’s destroyed industry and infrastructure, which is 38 billion USD more than previous estimates. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed confidence that such extremely high cost of the recovery means that it has to become “a global project”. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-vidbudova/3964208-na-vidnovlenna-ukraini-za-novim-zvitom-svitovogo-banku-potribno-524-milardi-smigal.html
At least 13% of the entire Ukrainian housing stock has been destroyed or heavily damaged, including more than 37 thousand multi-storey buildings. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-vidbudova/3963952-ukraina-vtratila-13-svogo-zitlovogo-fondu-kuleba.html
General Director of the Federation of Transport Employers of Ukraine Volodymyr Husak Many Ukrainian admitted that most of the Ukrainian enterprises had to terminate or reduce their operations. Many industrial plants are compelled to stop production completely due to the high railroad tariffs imposed recently. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/chekayemo-zvazhenogo-rishennya-vid-minrozvitku-frtu-poperedila-pro-rizik-zakrittya-pidpriyemstv-u-razi-pidvishchennya-vantazhnih-tarifiv-ukrzaliznici-11012025-514800
According to the data of the recent social research conducted by SOCIS, one of the leading Ukraine’s field studies centers, the incumbent president’s rating is less than 16% and he is likely to lose an election to former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Zaluzhny, who is currently serving as Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/02/20/7499275/
Besides a decline in public support, Zelensky is facing danger to lose the loyalty of his own party. The law on prohibition of elections until the end of the war was approved by a narrow majority of members of parliament only on a second attempt.https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/02/25/novyna/polityka/vr-druhoho-razu-proholosuvala-postanovu-pro-demokratiyu-ta-lehitymnist-zelenskoho
In such circumstances Zelensky wants to suppress the political activity of the most popular possible rivals, particularly mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko, opposition leader Yuri Boyko and former president Petro Poroshenko.
The Kyiv City Council was forbidden to continue its cooperation with the Armed Forces, because law enforcement agencies suspect that it can lead to a “creation of a criminal group”. Volodymyr Bondarenko who holds the position of deputy mayor of Kyiv explained that the government wants the city government to terminate its activity in support of the army and the commanders are afraid to accept any help from the city. https://gazeta.ua/articles/politics/_siloviki-pogrozhuyut-vijskovim-pidrozdilam-vimagayuchi-ne-brati-dopomogu-vid-kiyeva-bondarenko-zvernuvsya-do-sbu/1207339
Yuri Boyko was deprived of all state awards of Ukraine and his financial assets were frozen on January 19 by the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. Boyko is the co-founder of the party “Opposition Platform — For Life” which was popular in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine and was banned after the Russian invasion. He was denounced for his pro-Russian views and in order to dispel accusations he recorded a ideo in which he called Vladimir Putin a war criminal. But it did not help to prevent the sanctions against him https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/society/zelenskij-pozbaviv-bojka-zvannya-geroya-ukraini.htm
Popular politicians who before the Russian invasion supported the idea of reconciliation with Russia, including leader of the banned Communist Party of Ukraine Petro Symonenko, were also deprived from political activity in January.
In February, former president Poroshenko was sanctioned by the government on ‘national security’ grounds. The sanctions include an asset freeze, therefore Poroshenko, who is the leader of the main opposition party and owner of a media holding, has lost an opportunity to support his political and media projects. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/13/europe/ukraine-poroshenko-sanctions-latam-intl/index.html
Forecast of further development of the conflict:
In the current situation, Ukraine has become entirely dependent on the European aid and the US administration has received an opportunity to make the EU responsible for the development on the battlefield and the outcome of the conflict. The continuation of hostilities threatens the EU influence in world politics, because the highly probable collapse of Ukraine’s defense and economy influence will be regarded as an evidence of the EU weakness. The Ukrainian government has to be made to accept the idea of the immediate cease-fire, which would help to involve the US in the cessation of hostilities and peace negotiations.
The economic crisis, caused by the war, is undermining Ukraine’s military capabilities and increase war-weariness. The suspension of the US military aid will increase the demoralization of the troops and recruits. Even if the EU can compensate part of the US military assistance, the impact of US decision on the public opinion will have a negative impact on the situation on the front-line.
Zelensky will keep on suppressing political activity of his probable political rivals in order to prevent public criticism and obtain advantages in case if the truce is established and elections are to be held.
Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:
It seems to be extremely important to impel Zelensky to announce that he supports the idea of an immediate cease-fire in order to reengage the US administration in the war settlement process.
The independent political and media activity in Ukraine needs to be protected from the attempts to preserve Zelensky’s political dominance.