Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (15.04- 15.05)
Russian forces has been pressing on with advances on different directions currently concentrating their efforts in Kharkiv region. The main goal of Russian tactics seems to be stretching Ukrainian defense and exhausting military units on the front-line in preparation for the upcoming strategic offensive, which aims and directions still remain unsettled.
The Ukrainian government is fully aware of the Kremlin’s intentions to wear out Ukrainian troops before the decisive offensive. Zelensky acknowledged that the enemy is trying to weaken Ukranian forces along the entire front. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/harkivska-operatsiya-rf-zvoditsya-do-namagannya-poslabiti-nas-zelenskij-nazvav-zavdannya-ukraini.htm
The Ukrainian army will not be able to hold their positions if the Ukrainian defense-lines are extended owing to shortage of manpower and insufficient fortifications. There should be serious doubts that the current state of affairs can be improved in the foreseeable future. Therefore, political leaders of Ukraine is trying to mitigate the probable consequences of of the impending defeat. Zelensky in his interview with AFP declared that banning the use of donated arms for attacks on Russian territory, the US and the EU has given the “biggest advantage” to the Kremlin. Zelensky also pleaded with Ukraine’s Western allies not to “show weakness” and help Ukraine to end the war with a “fair peace”. https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-warns-russia-could-step-002340061.html
Zelensky admitted that Ukrainian troops on the front-line continue to be significantly outgunned and out-manned, which has caused the consequent decrease of troops’ morale, particularly significant during the last three months. War weariness and lack of conviction appear to have spread throughout Ukraine and the government will not be able to overcome shortage of manpower without severe measures to prevent draft evasion. In the current present situation such steps can cause unpredictable repercussions, including social and political turmoil. Consequently, the government is restricting itself to half measures, which are not sufficient to solve the existing problems, but harsh enough to provoke widespread social distress both in Ukraine and in the EU countries with a high number of Ukrainian refugees. The Ukrainian government has been trying to press draft-age men to to enroll for military service in order to overcome the shortage of manpower. Men eligible for recruitment will be denied consular services abroad, which is supposed to compel draft evaders residing outside Ukraine to return home. (The Economist, April 27 – May 3, 2024)
Approximately 650,000 men of fighting age have left Uktaine, a lot of them have done it through illegal means. If these people cannot gain access to legal aid and services, they will mostly choose to stay abroad, ignoring both demands of the Ukrainian government and law requirements in the countries of their actual residence.
In an interview with POLITICO, Yermak, the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, admiited that the government avoided launching a mass mobilization, because in that case it would have lost backing of the people. Zelensky wants his decision to be widely supported and not just carried out because “people were ordered to do it.” https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/
Zelensky has obviously fallen over again into the same trap of trying to remain popular and meet public expectations, regardless of tragic situation in which Ukraine finds itself due to the Russian invasion. Like in case of senseless and ill-equipped offensive operations, which lead only to the exhaustion of troops and depletion of military equipment, the government is unwilling to acknowledge the true situation on the battlefield, because it will enevitably lose public support. Nevertheless, it should be publicly admitted that in spite of continuation of Western military aid, Ukraine cannot keep on with hostilities without posing serious threats of new territorial losses and disastrous military defeats.
American and European military aid cannot deliver victory to Ukraine but it can facilitate convincing the Kremlin that continuing the war will eventually become far more costly to Russia and the rate of casualties will be significantly increased.
Ukraine’s position should be strengthened not for the continuation of the war, but in order to make possible to create the conditions for a lasting peace. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/american-aid-alone-wont-save-ukraine
According to “The Economist” a new Russian offensive can be expected early in the summer. Although the latest American package is going to increase Ukraine’s defense capabilities, it will not provide an opportunity to launch an offensive to liberate the territories captured by Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 (The Economist, April 27 – May 3, 2024).
The Western military aid might allow to hamper the upcoming Russian offensive, it will not provide Ukraine with resources necessary to seize the initiative and counterattack. Russia will maintain its air and artillery superiority, while Ukrainian front-line air defense will remain inadequate. Most importantly, Ukraine’s manpower shortage is certain to become more severe, because the government has neither public support nor political will to carry out the major mobilization.
However, due to political reasons Zelensky will not confine Ukrainian military operations to active defense and will attempt to launch an offensive. In his interview with AFP Zelensky anticipated the resumption of offensive operations. He expects that the prospects for a new counter-offensive would appear if the situation at the front is stabilized.
Before the Ukrainian offensive was launched last year, Zelensky had promised that it would have become the turning point in the course of the war, resulting in the liberation of most of the occupied territories. The offensive turned out to be a total disaster. It didn’t deliver results, becoming a failure from a military point of view, and led to huge losses, depletion of resources, debilitation of troops, which affected behavior of potential recruits. If Zelensky is provided with the opportunity to make new attempts of offensive operations to compensate the current defeats, the military and social consequences of these actions will be even more disastrous.
Morale of troops on the front-line has dramatically decreased, and eligible would-be recruits are trying to avoid the draft and leave the country illegally (if they have enough money for that). Ukraine’s political leaders acknowledged that the people are becoming tired of the war and public spirits are sagging https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/
The inevitable fall of the strategically important town of Chasiv Yar will jeopardize Ukraine’s last stronghold in the Donetsk region. The upcoming Russian assault on poorly prepared positions of Ukrainian troops can result in defense-lines collapsing. In anticipation of that, the Ukrainian government is seeking the way to make the Ukrainian society to accept new territorial losses and huge casualties. Due to that, there is there is good reason for apprehension that the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, which is to be held on June 15-16 will at the Bürgenstock Resort near Lucerne, will be primarily used by Kyiv to convince the domestic audience that there is no other solution but to hold on until Russia is coerced to accept “Ukraine’s peace formula”.
An international approval to the peace proposals might compel China and other Russian partners to use their influence to establish of a long-lasting truce. However, this idea cannot be implemented if the Kremlin is presented with a plan, which can be regarded as an obvious defeat of Putin’s regime.
Currently, the Chinese opinion on international problems seems to be of great importance to Russia, and Chinese influence is most required to convince Russia to end the hostilities on the conditions, which can secure a lasting truce. The Chinese approach to peace process should be taken into consideration by the Ukrainian government. Otherwise, the Summit on Peace in Ukraine would only help Russia to persuade its partners that the war can come to an end only after obvious military defeat of Ukraine.
Zelensky’s formula, which entails an actual capitulation of Russia, will not be recognized by Beijing as an acceptable set of conditions for peace and reconciliation. Xi Jinping stressed at the joint meeting with the press with Emmanuel Macron that China will support peace plan recognized by both Russia and Ukraine. China also wants to ensure the equal participation of all parties in the elaboration of the peace plan. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202405/t20240507_11293718.html
Zelensky, who wants the Ukrainian public to believe that the “Ukraine’s Peace Formula” is considered to be the only basis for an internationally approved peace process, will try to avoid any discussion of truce conditions at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. He declared at the meeting with cadets of the Academy of the State Border Service that Ukraine wants discussion at the summit to be focused on the issues of energy and nuclear security, free navigation, exchange of prisoners of war and return of Ukrainian children who were illegally deported or forcibly transferred to Russia. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/05/03/novyna/polityka/zelenskyj-rozpoviv-yakyx-pytannya-planuye-zoseredytysya-ukrayina-samitu-myru
In such a case, the Summit on Peace in Ukraine will have no effect on the continuation of hostilities, but it will give the Ukrainian government a pretext to continue the hostilities and will make the Ukrainian public accept a prolongation of the war. It should be noted that Ukrainian military leaders appear to realize that in the present situation Ukraine cannot defeat Russia and liberate occupied territories.
Vadym Skibicki, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), confessed that he does not see the possibility of ending the war with Russia solely through victory on the battlefield. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/a-fresh-russian-push-will-test-ukraine-severely-says-a-senior-general
The Economist reported that the high-ranking officers questioned by the magazine do not believe that Ukraine has the resources to get back to its 1991 borders (The Economist, May 11-17, 2024). However, political leaders of Ukraine require the continuation of hostilities to have a justification for postponing elections, which can be lost by Zelensky, whose presidential term has already come to an end.
It should be kept in mind that the situation on the battlefield is destined to deteriorate to the shortage of fortifications, which were not built on schedule. According to Ukrainian political analyst Alexander Kochetkov, this non-fulfilment of effective defense requirements cannot be righted, because it is impossible to build appropriate front-line fortifications under enemy fire. Pictures of fortifications of the second echelon, which were publish on social media, arouse suspicion that they do not meet the necessary conditions. The other major failure, which has been silenced by the government, is the lack of dense minefields, which were not laid, though they proved their effectiveness in 2023, when they were used by Russian troops to thwart Ukrainian offensive. https://opinions.glavred.net/novaya-taktika-rossiyan-na-harkovshchine-chto-stoit-znat-10564748.html
In Kharkiv region, where Russian advance is especially dangerous, most of the state funding for the construction of fortifications seem to have been stolen. The money were provided to shell companies, which have not fulfilled their contractual obligations. The legal owners of such companies are people without any assets and often with a criminal past. The funds, which were transferred to these companies, cannot be recovered. https://parlament.ua/ru/news/groshi-pishli-lyudyam-z-kriminalnim-minulim-sotni-miljoniv-griven-mogli-vkrasti-na-budivnicztvi-fortifikaczij-na-harkivshhini/
Martyna Bohuslavets, the head of anti-corruption NGO “Mezha” (“Network”), stated that “the owners” of the companies, which were supposed to be involved in construction of fortifications, are unaware of their existence. https://www.pravda.com.ua/columns/2024/05/13/7455571/
It was noted, that telegram channels associated with the Kharkiv regional administration removed Zelensky’s statement made at the end of the last year that fortifications built in Kharkiv region could be called “powerful”. https://t.me/MediaKiller2021/12625
Shocking ineptitude displayed by high ranking officials in the past months has been combined with a gradual concentration of power in the hands of Andriy Yermak, the head of the presidential office, who became friends with Zelensky in 2011. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/18/andriy-yermak-power-chief-ukraine
Yermak gained benefits from the reshuffle of the presidential office at the end of March, when there were dismissals of several advisors, who had started working at the President’s Office before Yermak was appointed. https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy-s-administrative-reshuffle-and-its-risks-expert-interview-50406266.html
In early May, Yermak got an opportunity to get rid of two influential ministers, who were not controlled by him.
On April 25, Mykola Solskyi, the Minister of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine, made the decision to resign, because he was accused of participating in a swindling scheme. On May 9, the Ukrainian parliament dismissed Solsky from his post. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/05/13/7185842/
Polish Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Michał Kołodziejczak, stated in his interview with “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” that talks with Kiev concerning restrictions on the Ukrainian food exports were suspended because the Polish government did not want to negotiate with people who were charged with corruption. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wydarzenia/artykuly/9505808,rozgrywki-polityczne-zamiast-marszu-kolodziejczak-protestow-prawdziw.html
It should be mentioned that Solskyi was considered to be completely independent of Yermak and as a minister, who controls extremely important economic activity, had his own circle of influence.
On May 9. the Verkhovna Rada also dismissed Oleksandr Kubrakov from the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction – Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure.
According to the resolution, Kubrakov was laid off because his office were divided into two separate ministries: one for infrastructure and one for regional development. Consequently, one of the most important positions in the Ukrainian government was closed down and the most influential independent official was removed.
After his dismissal, Kubrakov stated that he had not been properly informed of the changes resulted in his ousting. Regardless of his “openness to dialogue” that decision was not discussed with him and he was not invited to the meeting of the pro-presidential party faction and the relevant committee. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32370
Kubrakov was considered to be acting in opposition to Yermak and antagonizing him by having his own connections with the Western governments and particularly the US administration. Forcing Kubrakov to resign, Yermak destroyed one of the most significant alternative centers of influence. He also showed that those, who are trying to establish relationships with the US and the European officials over his head, just endanger their own positions. It is rumored that the representatives of the US administration made attempts to prevent Kubrakov’s dismissal, but the presidential office simply ignored them.
Most likely, Kubrakov will be held responsible for the destruction of a significant part of Ukrainian infrastructure, which the ministry headed by him was legally obliged to protect. The relevant allegations have already appeared on the media. Besides, Maryana Bezuhla, a member of parliament, who had called for the discharge of former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, started disparaging incumbent Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. According to Bezugla, Syrskyi ignores “critical issues”, and Ukrainian high-ranking generals under his command have been squandering Ukraine’s chances for victory. https://parlament.ua/news/nardep-bezugla-pochala-rizko-kritikuvati-sirskogo-ta-jogo-pidleglih-generaliv/
The Ukrainian government appears to be preparing for political and military challenges, which Ukraine will encounter in the near future. In a critical situation, the government might face difficulties in dealing with mass frustration due to the crisis of presidential legitimacy, which can arise in consequence of inevitable decline of public confidence in the president. Zelensky stated in his interview with Reuters that his presidential term is not going to expire until martial law remains in effect. However, in time of crisis such justification might not be considered as reasonable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEvBASh78PE
Forecast of further development of the conflict
In the current situation, Ukraine cannot count on a successful continuation of hostilities. It will not be able to overcome a shortage of manpower and ammunition. The challenges ahead seem to be insurmountable. Russia has a rapidly growing weapons and ammunition production and has created conditions for launching a successful offensive. If Moscow is able to achieve significant success in the summer, Ukraine will face social unrest, which will be difficult to manage partly because of legitimation crisis. Russia is trying to create a threat of cutting lines of communication with troops, which are defending Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. The Ukrainian army has to concentrate efforts on preventing the possible blockade of Kharkiv, weakening other directions in spite of the danger that they will be chosen for major offensive operations. It is becoming urgent to compel Russia to agree on cessation of hostilities, using the tools of international pressure. The Summit on Peace in Ukraine can play a major role in formulating an internationally supported truce plan. Therefore, the Ukrainian government should not be allowed to turn the Summit in the event aimed to justify the protraction of the war in the eyes of Ukrainian public.
The government’s inability to accomplish the construction of fortifications in Kharkiv region indicates a deep crisis in the Ukrainian governance system. Though Western financial and military assistance can mitigate the consequences of this crisis, it will inevitably give rise to new risks and dangers, undermining Ukraine’s military capabilities and affecting outcomes of combat operations.
Yermak will keep on concentrating power in the hands of presidential office and destroying alternative centers of influence. Until the termination of hostilities and conduction of new elections, this process can only be hindered by building direct connections between Western official and independent political actors in Ukraine.
Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:
Compelling Russia to negotiate on truce seem to be especially difficult. There is an urgent need for collaboration between major non-Western states (especially, China, Brazil and Turkey) and the EU countries in creating tools of international pressure on Russia. Before the Summit on Peace in Ukraine it should be made clear that non-Western leaders can benefit from taking active part in the peace process and the EU countries will take into consideration their needs and proposals. Ukrainian supporters of truce should be given a chance to express publicly their opinion.