Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (01.04- 15.04)
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell asserted at a talk hosted by the Center for a New American Security that “Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily” after the losses it suffered earlier. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-after-ukraine-losses-us-official-2024-4
In contrast to the restoration of Russian military strength, Ukrainian forces are critically affected by shortage ammunition and personnel, which has undermined their military capability. Moreover, the morale of Ukrainian troops has been decreasing after the fall of Avdiivka due to exhaustion and lack of fortifications needed to counter with the growing pressure from the enemy.
Ukraine is getting closer to a military defeat, which will not be accepted by the Ukrainian society because of its unrealistic expectations promulgated by the government. Therefore, highly probable success of the upcoming Russian offensive can provoke a political crisis, which will inevitably undermine endurance of the Ukrainian society.
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky acknowledged that the situation on the eastern front had significantly deteriorated recently. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/13/kyiv-says-eastern-front-deteriorated-as-russia-claims-village-a84831
But political leaders of Ukraine cannot devise and adopt a new military strategy, because it would imply Zelensky’s inability to fulfill his own promise of Ukraine’s restoration within its borders as of 1991. Until recently Zelensky regularly restated that all the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea, would be liberated in the foreseeable future. He cannot admit that it cannot be achieved in the current circumstances, though Ukraine’s battlefield situation requires an adjustment of the rhetoric of the political leadership.
The Washington post reported that social solidarity in Ukraine was noticed to be “fraying” and at least a part of the political elite does not consider the official goals of the war to be “realistic”. Though Zelensky has promised to prioritize domestic production of ammunition, Ukraine can cover only a small fraction of its needs, and there can be no rapid increase production due to the dire economic conditions. According to the Washington post, Russian forces are now firing six times as much as the Ukrainians along the front line https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/06/ukraine-war-zelensky-options/
Unfortunately, it should be expected that the current ratio will go from bad to worse.
Nevertheless, Zelensky is going to carry on his strategy despite its obvious failure. In the interview with Politico, Zelensky undertook to launch a new counteroffensive against Russia. He reassured that the next attempt to overcome Russian troops would be more successful that the previous one. He acknowledged that failure of the counteroffensive which was started last year, but could not give reasons why the Ukrainian army should be expected to show more progress next time. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/09/zelenskyy-invites-trump-ukraine-russia-00151310
In recent months Russian forces have regained the initiative on the battlefield, and Ukrainian troops have no chances to win it back without overcoming shortage of manpower and ammunition. But Zelensky keeps acting as if there have been no negative changes, though he has been compelled to acknowledge a dangerous development of the battlefield situation.
The social survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on behalf of the International Republican Institute (IRI) has shown that the majority of Ukrainians (88%) still believe in a victory over Russia, though this segment of the Ukrainian population has become significantly smaller since June 2022, when it reached 98%. But only 45% of respondents expect that Ukraine will maintain all territories from within its internationally recognized borders defined in 1991, 16% believe that Ukraine will regain territories in the border that were under control of the Ukrainian government before February 24, 2022. And 16%. expect Ukraine to lose some more territories. https://www.iri.org/resources/national-survey-of-ukraine-feb-2024/
It means that even a significant part of those, who believe in Ukraine’s victory, do not want the war to continue until the liberation of all of the occupied territories, as it has been proclaimed. And the majority of Ukrainians do not want to make new sacrifices to achieve this goal. Only 36% of the respondents consider the current level of mobilization to be insufficient, and 49% think that it is “just right” (30%) or even “too much” (19). In the age group of 18-28 the share of those, who believe that the level of mobilization is adequate or excessive, reaches 74%, and of those, who want it to be increased, reduces up to 20%. Only 26% of those, who think that the war should continue until all the occupied territories are recaptured, would agree to the enlistment in the military or to the recruitment of their loved ones. 39% of this group are not be inclined to go further than reducing consumption of electricity, gas, and hot water. 33% are ready to pay more taxes in order to covet war needs.
It should be noted that 51% of Ukrainians consider the corruption among state authorities to be the biggest threat to Ukraine’s development, and 46% think that it’s the Russian military aggression.
39% of respondents think that the most important current goal of Ukraine is recapturing all the occupied territories, and only 19% want most of all freezing the conflict at the present lines to stop the loss of more Ukrainian lives. But in the age group of 18-35, which is supposed to become the most important contributor for the upcoming mobilization, the share of those, who support the idea of cease-fire, reaches 29%.
The measures aimed at increasing mobilization by punishing draft evaders cannot be successfully implemented in such conditions. Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s powerful chief of staff, stated in his unterview with Politico that a new massive mobilization will not be supported by the Ukrainian society and Zelensky understands that. He remains “president of the people” and does not want them to abide by the decisions, which have not won their backing. According to Yermak, Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces Syrskyi believes that additional front-line troops can be secured by transferring desk-bound uniformed personnel to the front-lines. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-andriy-yermak-interview-volodymyr-zelenskyy-russia/
It can be doubted that the manpower demand will be satisfied with the relocation of military personnel clerks to the battlefield. But it is obvious that a new massive mobilization cannot be conducted without a severe impact on Ukraine’s political stability, economic conditions and demographic trends.
It was expounded that a new massive mobilization in Ukraine will cause the decimation of a whole generation, because young men under age 30, the most most essential age-group for combat operations, are part of the smallest generation in Ukraine’s modern history. The new legislation, which reduces the age for military mobilization from 27 to 25, threatens to furtherly diminish this small generation of Ukrainians. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/11/world/europe/ukraine-demographics.html
James David Vance, a republican senator from Ohio, warned that even draconian conscription policies will not help Ukrainian government to improve significantly battlefield situation, because the US and the EU cannot rapidly increase production to cover Ukraine’s needs artillery shells. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/opinion/jd-vance-ukraine.html
The Ukrainian government cannot continue the war without a serious risk of a military defeat, which can have disastrous domestic and international repercussions. In the current situation, the cease-fire seems to be the only way the only way to prevent undesirable changes on the battlefield, political instability and social unrest.
The law on mobilization, which will come into force in mid-May, will not provide the means for overcoming manpower shortage, but it will inevitably cause social conflicts and induce deviant behavior. All men eligible for military service will have to report their real place of residence to the military registration and enlistment office within 60 days, this term will end in mid-July. The only punishments prescribed by the law for the non-performance of this obligation are comparatively small fines and a driving license withdrawal, which seems to be inadequate for preventing draft evasion. An attempt to launch massive mobilization will prompt thousands of Ukrainians to escape form the government surveillance altogether, which will dramatically increase underground economy and illegal market transactions.
lts of survey conducted by Info Sapiens research agency show that 63% of Ukrainian men of military age do not want to be conscripted, and only 20% of men in the age-group 25-59, who are not in the military service, are ready to join the army. https://www.dw.com/ru/ekssekretar-snbo-danilov-stanet-poslom-ukrainy-v-moldove/a-68701842
The new law also threatens to undermine the morale of the fighting troops, because it completely forbids demobilization, regardless of a soldier’s time spent on a battlefield. The exhaustion of the troops can cause non-compliance and disobedience, because soldiers will not be able to anticipate returning home in the near future. The inability of the government to provide prompt replenishment for the exhausted units will inevitably cause wide-spread resentment.
Forecast of further development of the conflict
Feng Yujun, a Chinese expert on foreign relations, stated in his article that the most important factor. which can influence the course of the war in favor of Ukraine is the extraordinary level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians. (The Economist, April 13-19, 2024).
Unfortunately, Ukraine’s military defeat, if it is not prevented by the cease-fire, can undermine the national unity and reduce morale of the troops. It can provide Russia with strategic advantages and have a disastrous impact on Ukraine’s domestic and international standing.
The probable military defeat of Ukrainian army caused by shortage of manpower, ammunition and fortifications would undermine the political legitimacy of the President, which can result in political crisis. The legitimacy of Ukrainian political leadership can be restored only with the help of the new elections. Though neither Ukrainian government, nor the public majority consider new elections to be necessary, it seems extremely important to start preparing their conduct as soon as possible.
Russia has started to destroy power plants instead of transmission facilities, which it targeted last year. It might have long-term consequences for Ukrainian economy, because the post-war post-war reconstruction will be obstructed due to the shortage of cheap electricity. Considering this, Ukraine’s economic development plans should be aimed at finding means to overcome this problem, which can become one of the main factors of social and economic instability after the cease-fire is established.
Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:
In the case of cease-fire Zelensky will inevitably lose political dominance and can face danger of losing elections. By this reason, he will try to continue the hostilities and suspend the elections as long as possible, regardless of the risk of a military defeat and reduction of his political legitimacy domestically and abroad. He should be offered a way out of this situation before the cease-fire is established. He needs to be assured that he obtain strong support from the EU during his election campaign, and will be able to continue his political career in the international organizations in case of his defeat.