Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (21.11-31.12 )

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There have been ambiguous signs from the Russian government about its willingness to start truce negotiations. During his briefing after the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting Putin stressed several times that Russia government is ready to commence the talks and “strives to end the conflict”. Though Russia continues to insist on complete and permanent rejection of the idea of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, meanwhile, upcoming Trump administration is expected to suggest just postponing of Ukraine’s admission. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75974

On the other hand, high-ranking Russian officials speak against the ceasefire and keep on demanding that Ukraine should agree to cede Russia the regions that were included in the Russian Constitution, before the start of the peace talks.

Such ambiguity is derived from the need felt by the Russian government to justify its actions that resulted in an enduring war and prove that they helped to strengthen Russia’s national security.

From that perspective, the Joint Statement from Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the High Representative of the EU signed in Berlin, should be considered as a conscious effort to hinder the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement.

It is assumed in the Joint statement that “the goals of a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine and durable security for Europe are inseparable”. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-foreign-ministers-of-germany-france-italy-poland-spain-the-uk-as-well-as-the-high-representative-of-the-eu-berlin-decembe

However, there is no reasonable chance that Ukraine will be able to return all Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories or will agree to surrender them to Russia in exchange for peaceful relations. Therefore, a peace agreement in compliance with international law appears to be impossible in the current circumstances. The only way to end the hostilities that impose a threat to the European and global security is to establish a ceasefire and work earnestly to ensure to its constant prolongation. But if “Ukraine must prevail” as it was declared in the Joint Statement the fighting is compelled to continue, and there is an indisputable danger that the further protraction of hostilities result in the collapse of Ukraine’s defense and economy.

The foreign ministers of the UK and EU countries reaffirmed the commitment to Zelensky’s Peace Formula, which cannot be implemented without Russia’s capitulation or overthrow of the incumbent Russian government. Both events cannot be expected in the foreseeable future. For that reason, it seems necessary to distinguish reality from the requirements of the international law and combine a demand for just and lasting peace with efforts to terminate the hostilities with ceasefire for the time being.

According to Zelensky, agreements with the Kremlin are possible only if Ukraine will be granted a strong position. https://zn.ua/ukr/POLITICS/zelenskij-ukrajina-sama-virishuvatime-jak-vesti-perehovori-z-rosijeju.html

Andriy Yermak, the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, has clarified that Ukraine can be strengthened only if it receives an invitation to NATO and is provided with more weapons. https://tvpworld.com/83968549/ukraine-not-ready-for-peace-talks-with-russia-zelenskyys-chief-of-staff-says

Zelensky suggests foreign troops could be deployed to Ukraine before NATO membership is given to Ukraine. I that case Kyiv make a deal with Moscow and establish truce. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/09/russia-ukraine-war-live-donald-trump-ceasefire-call-volodymyr-zelenskyy

There is no doubt that Ukraine’s NATO membership will be regarded by the Russian government as is unacceptable even if it applies only to the parts of the country that are not occupied by Russia. Deployment of European and American troops in Ukraine can become an obvious failure of Putin and if such an opportunity is seriously considered, he will strive to prevent it with a further escalation of hostilities. The conditions of truce demanded by Zelensky will be inevitably rejected by the Kremlin and this is the main reason why he is pushing for them.

Ukrainian political analyst Yuriy Vishnevsky considers that Zelensky has assumed the role of “Mr. Yes” who agrees with Trump’s demand to freeze the war immediately because he is certain that Putin will not accept his conditions. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/myagkaya-kapitulyaciya-kto-zastavil-zelenskogo-govorit-o-zamorazhivanii-voyny-10122024-513158

In his phone interview to The New-York Post Trump expressed confidence in Zelensky’s readiness for truce talks. He pointed out that Zelensky “wants to have a cease-fire,” but stated further that they did not discuss the details. https://nypost.com/2024/12/08/us-news/trump-says-zelensky-is-ready-for-peace-as-he-dishes-to-post-on-meetings-with-world-leaders-and-jill-biden/

The Ukrainian President for his part is certain that Donald Trump knows that it is dangerous to freeze the war in Ukraine and that Kyiv will never agree to it. During an online conversation with readers of Le Parisien. Zelensky stated that he asked Trump “not to rush to the detriment of Ukraine.”. https://www.leparisien.fr/international/il-faut-remettre-poutine-a-sa-place-volodymyr-zelensky-face-a-nos-lecteurs-17-12-2024-VHGEU2NPCBGJ3NQKSXOTQM2TFQ.php

As the IISWU has warned, the Ukrainian president is trying to avoid a discussion of the cease-fire and is trying to exclude a possibility of truce negotiations though he is not denying publicly the necessity of cease-fire negotiations. Zelensky has been also trying to disparage the probable mediators or ignore their proposals.

Slovak prime-minister Fico who was regarded by Putin as a possible mediator received an insulting scolding from Zelensky. The Ukrainian president stated once again that “Moscow does not understand words” and can only be compelled to obey by force. Fighting Russia, Ukraine is striving to achieve peace. Trying to achieve an agreement with Putin, Fico is motivated by greed and he hardly wants money for Slovakia, but wishes fill his own pockets. https://www.president.gov.ua/news/moskva-sliv-ne-rozumiye-ale-povinna-vidchuvati-silu-zvernenn-95197

In the same way Zelensky derogatorily admonished Hungarian prime-minister Orban for his attempts to became a mediator in establishing cease-fire. At the meeting of the All-Ukrainian Congress of Local and Regional Authorities the Ukrainian president stressed that Ukraine has an army that showed its firmness on the battlefield and can counter with Putin’s aggression. Orban can only influence Putin only by his jokes and smiles. He and people like him cannot be allowed to act as mediators. Afterward, Orbán said he had offered Ukraine a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war, but his proposition was rejected. Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Peter Szijjarto, said that Kyiv refused the telephone conversation between Orban and Zelensky regarding the Hungarian ceasefire proposal. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/12/17/7200872/

Zelensky’s denial of cease-fire proposals does not seem to be in conformity with the situation on the battlefield. The Ukrainian army has been retreating recently along the entire front-line, even in the Kursk region, in spite of great political significance of the military operations there for the Ukrainian government.

After the fall of Pokrovsk, which appears to be inevitable, the collapse of the Ukrainian defense can be prevented only by the significantly increased military support from the allies . Zelensky needs to receive strong guarantees that Ukraine will be provided with an opportunity to keep fighting even after Pokrovsk is captured. Ukraine’s accession to NATO can become the most effective escape for his government and he is striving to start an admission process.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Ukraine’s diplomats to persuade Western allies to accomplish Ukraine’s accession to NATO. He regards Ukraine’s NATO membership as “an achievable goal” and considers it to be crucial to any peace plan. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/22/volodymyr-zelenskyy-tells-ukraines-diplomats-to-fight-for-nato-membership

The Ukrainian army is losing power to conduct successful military operations against Russian troops because of their superiority in military personnel and firepower. Russian forces gained strong advantages over Ukrainian ones even in the Kursk region in spite of all the resources which were directed there.

By the middle of December Ukraine has already lost about half of the territories it previously controlled in Kursk region. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/16/ukrainian-troops-celebrate-a-grim-christmas-in-kursk

Thanks to his recent military success Moscow plans to intensify military operations in the Zaporozhye region and on the right-bank part of the Kherson region. It was reported, that the readiness of the Russians for an offensive on the right bank of the Kherson region is higher than in Zaporozhye. https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/nastup-herson-ta-zaporizkiy-oblasti-shcho-1734937748.html

All the attempts to organize an effective defense without the sufficient military personnel have failed, new recruits appear to be low motivated and increasing of their share in the units on the front-line can undermine the moral of the troops.

President’s optimistic declarations proved to be incapable to boost low morale on the front and overcome war-weariness in the settlements stricken by the hostilities. Those, who live near the front-lines, fear an imminent catastrophe. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80rjxl7le1o

The destruction of electric power generation and transportation systems cannot be stopped and Ukraine has started to lose ability to transfer electricity from the regions which is going to have severe economic and social impact.

After the Russian missile attack on Ukrainian electric power system on the December 25 Yuriy Nikolov, the well-known economic analyst, predicted a sharp increase of the energy deficit. He pointed out that the Ministry of Energy did not ensure the distribution of electric power generated by the undamaged plants. If the destruction of the energy system continues, the East and the West of Ukraine will become more divided due to unequal living conditions. https://fakty.ua/447992-nado-uzhe-sejchas-obyasnyat-lyudyam-v-kakom-pi-ce-my-uzhe-est-zhurnalist-o-situacii-s-elektroenergiej-v-ukraine

The Ukrainian government continues to intensify tax pressure making thousands of small and medium enterprises non-functional.

Opendatabot, a service for monitoring registration data of Ukrainian companies, conducted a research which showed that 27% of the small business owners are planning to close their businesses in the near future. 62% of them consider tax increases to be the main reason for the closure of their enterprises. https://gazeta.ua/articles/economics/_comu-zakrivayutsya-fopi-proveli-masshtabne-doslidzhennya/1203289

The Ilko Kucheriv «Democratic Initiatives» foundation published results of public opinion polls, which prove that the Ukrainian society is divided on the issue of the cease-fire conditions. Respondents most frequently mentioned two opposite answers: the cessation of shelling of Ukrainian territories that are currently not occupied (54%) and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire Ukraine’s territory (46.5%). It should be noted that respondents are more likely to support unconditional cease-fire. https://dif.org.ua/article/pidsumki-2024-roku-v-ochikuvanni-spravedlivogo-miru-zagalnonatsionalne-opituvannya

The forecast for potential development of current trends:

The Ukrainian government is going to become completely dependent on the EU countries for financial aid and military support, because the upcoming Trump administrations appears to intend to make Ukraine a burden for the EU. The probable military defeat and economic collapse of Ukraine will be regarded in that case as a failure of the EU, which can cause new internal division in the EU on the immigration and foreign policy issues.
Despite Zelensky’s intention to continue the hostilities and exclude the possibility of cease-fire, Ukraine is facing the dangers of military defeat and social disintegration in case of the prolongation of the war. Though almost half of the Ukrainian society rejects an idea of the immediate unconditional ceasefire, it seems to be the only efficient way to stave off the upcoming disaster.
Ukraine’s electric power system cannot function properly due to the level of destruction. In in combination with economic difficulties it can provoke an increase of tension between the regions where the the electric power industry has been destroyed, and those less damaged by the war.

Recommendation for the European institutions and organizations:

The leaders of the countries which are expected to have an influence on the Russian government due to their economic and political importance to Moscow should be engaged as mediators in the process of establishing cease-fire regardless of the attitude of Kyiv. It should be noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s position in his relations with Russia has been strengthened after the success of Syrian opposition. Turkey has become extremely important for the Russian industrial import and its proposals cannot be easily rejected by the Kremlin. and Africa. Moreover, Erdoğan seems to be willing to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has significantly intensified military recruitment though the new recruits are low motivated and unwilling to fight. The methods of recruitment are reported to violate basic human rights and cause social tension. Ukrainian social activists and NGOs fighting the violations should be politically supported and provided with access to the European media in order to influence the actions of the Ukrainian government.