Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (10.10.-20.11 )
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Volodymyr Zelensky declared on November 16, that negotiations with Russia are currently a “losing option.” The President of Ukraine assured that the talks with Moscow will become possible if Ukraine is strong and backed up by its Western allies. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/swiat/artykuly/9669678,koniec-wojny-w-ukrainie-zelenski-negocjacje-z-rosja-to-teraz-przegr.html
It is hard to comprehend what Zelensky really means. However, it can be supposed that he considers that the truce negotiations should not be commenced unless the situation on the battlefield gets better.
Currently, there seems to be no possibility of any improvements in the foreseeable future. But Zelensky continues to ignore reality and keeps on trying to persuade Ukrainians that extended hostilities will finally bring military success.
The “Internal Sustainability Plan” presented by Zelensky in the Verkhovna Rada should be regarded as a new attempt to demonstrate that the government has a comprehensive strategy and its implementation will enable effective resistance to Russian aggression. The sustainability consists of ten sections: Unity, Front, Weapon, Money, Energy Security, Communities, Human capital, Cultural sovereignty, Politics of heroes. But President’s plan nowhere goes beyond merely setting goals and making optimistic declarations. https://lb.ua/society/2024/11/19/645824_prezident_prezentuvav_verhovniy.html
Zelensky once again claimed that Russia should be “forced into peace” disregarding Putin’s demands and conditions. In order to achieve that Ukraine and its partners should above all change the current circumstances and compel Kremlin to negotiate only afterwards. Zelensky acknowledged in his speech to parliament that some Ukrainian allies are not inclined to reject an opportunity to end hostilities through diplomatic means even at the present time. He admitted that the word ‘negotiations’ has been recently used by Ukrainian partners more often than the word ‘justice’. But if his plan is carried through, Russia’s military power will destroyed. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-present-victory-plan-ukraines-parliament-2024-10-16/
It should be noted, that in his speech Zelensky exclude a possibility of elections until the victory over Russia is achieved. According to the president, “a fair peace” that should precede “fair elections”. It means that elections can be conducted only after Russia is completely defeated because Zelensky regards the liberation of all territories occupied by Russia as the main condition of “a fair peace”.
The president said that all speculations concerning the possibility of elections should be cut short. He emphasized that there will be no elections until the end of the war with a fair peace https://cripo.com.ua/news/war/zelenskyj-prezentuvav-u-verhovnij-radi-plan-stijkosti-z-10-punktiv/
Zelensky pointed out that even if Ukraine has to cease temporarily the hostilities in order to “outlive someone in Moscow” and to regain its strength for a new military offensive against Russian troops, this period of peace will not be used for conducting elections. In this case, Ukraine will just be waiting for a convenient moment to unfreeze the war. Until there is no just peace (i.e. until a part of the Ukrainian territory remains occupied), there will be no elections. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/voevat-do-smerti-putina-kakie-plany-predstavil-zelenskiy-deputatam-19112024-511921
Zelensky was also trying to dispel doubts about Ukraine’s ability to resist the Russian aggression in the case of reduction of American military assistance. He assured that Ukraine will be able to produce different types of arms and munitions including its own missile systems. According to Zelensky, the production of Ukrainian missiles has already started. However, some military experts consider this statement to be unfounded, because Ukraine lacks machine-tool construction and radio-electronics industry required for manufacturing of missiles. Besides, there is no high skill engineering training to close employees skills gaps. https://zn.ua/ukr/POLITICS/zelenskij-poobitsjav-kompensuvati-nestachu-artileriji-dronami-ta-vidiljati-bilshe-hroshej-brihadam.html
Meanwhile, as the IISWU has warned, the Ukrainian army is losing territory and has lost its ability to resist Russian assaults. Russian troops continue to gradually advance in the direction of Pokrovsk and has already captured almost all settlements located to the south and to the southwest of the town. The Russian military units seized control over the railway and approached closer than 5.5 kilometers to the strategically important town. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/u-zsu-rozpovili-skilki-kilometriv-rosijskij-armiji-zalishilosja-do-pokrovska.html
Pokrovsk is not just a crucial transport hub, essential for the maintenance of Ukrainian defense in the region, but also the last settlement with metallurgical coal mines that is still controlled by Ukraine. One of three shafts of the only Ukraine mine that produces coking coal is now less than seven kilometers from the front. Russian missiles have already hit the Pokrovske mine, yet it continues to operate. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2024-11-11/trump-s-ukraine-peace-plan-will-need-a-lot-of-preparatory-work?srnd=undefined
The fall of Pokrovsk appears to be inevitable, and after it is captured steel companies in Ukraine will lose the last domestic source of an essential ingredient in the production of steel. If Ukrainian steel producers are impelled to import coking coal, approximately 50% of the country’s current steel production will become non-competitive due to increased costs. It will affect the cost and availability of steel for Ukraine’s arms industry and will hinder reconstruction after the war.
The upcoming loss of Pokrovsk, will be a significant military gain for the Kremlin and will negatively impact both Ukraine’s ability to defend the region and functioning of the Ukrainian economy as a whole. If the hostilities are not ceased in the near future, the Russian army will get the opportunity to capture an important lithium deposit (holds an estimated 350,000 metric tons of ore) which is situated south of Pokrovsk and currently just 20 kilometers from the front lines.
Ukrainian Forces has to retreat under enemy pressure not only in Pokrovsk area, but in all directions, because Ukrainian positions are being actively attacked and Ukrainian soldiers are being outnumbered. https://gazeta.ua/articles/np/_vorog-aktivno-atakuye-poziciyi-ukrayinskih-voyiniv-na-vsih-napryamkah-genshtab/1200383
Despite of the danger of collapse on parts of eastern front, the Ukrainian government continues with the military operation in the Kursk region, which does not have any military significance, but is certainly important from a political viewpoint.
The operation in the Kursk region has been attracting resources required in other directions. Notwithstanding, it has no chance of success because Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned in the face of a steady Russian onslaught.
30% of the previously controlled territory has been already lost, and a full retreat from the region seems to be only a question of time.
The only rational decision, recommended by some prominent military analysts, appears to be an immediate withdrawal of all the Ukrainian troops deployed in the Kursk region, and engaging them in the defense operations in the Eastern Ukraine. But the government has no intention to terminate the operation because of its political effect. https://tsn.ua/ato/vtratili-30-iz-kontrolovanoyi-teritoriyi-analitik-zaklikav-do-vihodu-z-kurschini-2695572.html
Russian forces after significant gains in the south of the Donetsk region, are expected to shift their focus to neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, which will be extremely difficult to defend due to the landscape and shortage of strong fortifications. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/analytics/russia-advances-in-kursk-and-donbas-is-ukrainian-1729578108.html
The data shows Moscow’s forces have seized around 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared with just 465 sq km in the whole of 2023, a near six-fold increase. Dr Marina Miron, a defence researcher at Kings College London, suggested that there was a possibility the Ukrainian eastern front “might actually collapse” if Russia continued to advance at pace. More than 1000 sq km was taken between 1 September and 3 November, suggesting the push accelerated in recent months. Two areas bearing the brunt of these advances are Kupiansk in Kharkiv region, and Kurakhove, a stepping stone to the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo
The Ukrainian air defense has dramatically lost its effectiveness as it can be concluded from the figures of daily shot targets. The reason for that can lie in the practice of using anti-aircraft units against ground targets on the front-line.
Due to these circumstances, the permission given to Ukraine to launch US and UK long-range missiles into Russia will not be able to impede the Russian offensive. But ballistic missiles attacks will be definitely used by the Ukrainian government to create public expectations that even at this stage the course of the war can be completely changed. Zelensky has already declared that it is being decided which side will prevail, because ballistic missiles gave Ukrainians an opportunity to defeat the enemy.
However, President’s optimistic declarations proved to be incapable to boost low morale on the front and overcome war-weariness in the settlements stricken by the hostilities. Those, who live near the front-lines, fear an imminent catastrophe. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80rjxl7le1o
While the enemy has been constantly adding manpower to the forward positions, Ukrainian military brigades, especially those that have been on the front line for a long time, seem be exhausted due to active fighting without rotation. German military analyst Julian Röpcke warned that the fatigue and Exhaustion of troops may lead to the retreat of the Armed Forces. Manpower has become an unsolvable problem. The fresh brigades, required to replace the troops on the front-line, simply do not exist. https://www.currenttime.tv/a/voennyy-analitik-o-boyah-v-donetskoy-oblasti-i-kak-mozhet-izmenitsya-situatsiya/33183014.html
Polish war correspondent Marcin Wyrwał expressed his conviction that the Ukrainian government failed to overcome two intertwined problems, – corruption and avoiding military service. According to Wyrwał, the repercussions of their impact on the situation on the battlefield, “contrary to the plan for victory promoted by President Zelensky, more closely resemble a ready-made plan for defeat”. https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/plan-porazki-dla-ukrainy-polak-twardo-rozprawia-sie-z-lansowanym-u-nas-mitem/crhc6ng
Ukrainian military leaders are complaining that the Ukrainian forces on the front-lines are significantly outnumbered by the enemy, which also has a larger amount of equipment and artillery. Russia has started to exploit more advantageously its air supremacy and has been dropping weekly about 900 glide bombs (large bombs weighing up to three tonnes fitted with wings for greater accuracy). Thanks to this new advantage, Russian bombardments have decimated Ukrainian defences.. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/18/russian-troops-fight-desperate-battles-for-ukraines-east-ahead-of-winter
It is likely that Ukraine’s high command has been anticipating that the the Donetsk region will be occupied in the near future and further fighting will shift to the Dnipropetrovsk region. Because of this, the Ministry of Defense, the military and the regional administration are building fortifications and strengthening defensive positions on the border of the region. https://www.unian.ua/war/dnipropetrovska-oblast-vzhe-gotuyetsya-do-oboroni-dor-novini-dnipra-12799785.html
In spite of the situation on the battlefield, the Ukrainian government is trying to prevent any possibility of truce negotiations rejecting the mediation efforts of countries which are trying to maintain good relations both with Ukrainian and Russia. Zelensky declared that he regards a neutrality as covert support for Russia.
In his interview to the Times of India the Ukrainian President refused to discuss Modi’s intention to bring peace in Ukraine and instead urged him to block Russian energy export to India and export of Indian industrial goods to Russia in order to decrease Moscow’s military capability. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/modi-can-influence-the-end-of-war-zelenskyy/articleshow/114667946.cms
Due to the same reasons, the Ukrainian government condemned Guterres visit to Brics’ summit. It was completely ignored, that during his visit to Kazan Guterres called for a “just peace” in Ukraine and reiterated his position to Putin that Russia’s invasion of the country was in “violation of the United Nations Charter and international law”. In a statement ahead of Guterres’ visit the Ukrainian foreign ministry said: “This is a wrong choice that does not advance the cause of peace. It only damages the UN’s reputation.” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyd4xg70ejo
Rafał Trzaskowski, the current city mayor of Warsaw, who will be the presidential candidate for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, condemned the position of the Ukrainian government because of its refusal to permit exhumation of the victims of the Volhynia massacre. He emphasized that exhumations should take place and Ukrainians cannot ignore Polish demands. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/9666277,pat-ws-rzezi-wolynskiej-trzaskowski-ostro-o-ukraincach.html
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (the UOC) remains under heavy administrative pressure, which is supposed to demonstrate the willingness of the government to cut all cultural ties. The Supreme Court of Ukraine has removed the right of the UOC to use the medieval Cathedral in Chernihiv, which has great symbolic significance. The wide support of the UOC in the city failed to influence the Supreme Court decision. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3931542-final-ruling-uocmp-denied-right-to-use-spasopreobrazhensky-cathedral-in-chernihiv.html
The main titanium ore mining companies in Ukraine “United Mining and Chemical Company” (OGHC) was sold to the private investor for 90 million euros, which is considered to be a ridiculously low price. OGHC controls Vilnohirsk Mining and Metallurgical plant and Irshansk Mining and Processing Plant, which specializes in the extraction and enrichment of titanium ore. There was only buyer at the auction, Azerbaijani businessman Nasib Hasanov, whose company collaborated previously with Russian corporations. https://zn.ua/ukr/macroeconomics/bijtes-azerbajdzhantsiv-shcho-titan-vinosjat-shcho-ne-tak-iz-privatizatsijeju-ohkhk.html
The forecast for potential development of current trends:
- The upcoming collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk region will impel further attempts of Zelensky and Yermak to establish control over the Armed Forces to prevent any public criticism and complains. It can be expected that the Ukrainian government will try to dismiss Chief of the Defence Intelligence Budanov in December. Budanov remains the last high ranking military leader who is independent of
- The administrative pressure on the UOC will lead to increasing social tensions in the regions, where the UOC is supported by the local population. In combination with the steady Russian advance it will undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian political system as a whole.
- The relations between Ukraine and the neighboring countries will be gradually deteriorating, because the Ukrainian government will be trying to avoid even symbolic concessions in order to demonstrate its attachment to the national pride and patriotic sentiments.
Recommendation for the European institutions and organizations:
- It is necessary to prevent the irreversible destruction of Ukrainian industry and the capture of important mineral deposits by Russian troops. Efforts to win back all the occupied territories seem to be completely senseless in the current situation. But Ukraine has to be provided with an opportunity to preserve a normally functioning economy. The survival of the Ukrainian economy directly depends on the possibility of a truce in the near future.
- The UOC should be given international support against the pressure inside Ukraine in order to prevent further actions of the Ukrainian government that can provoke a rise in social unrest.
- The privatization of the state-owned companies has to be closely watched in order to avert questionable deals, which can undermine Ukraine’s economic potential.