Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (04.03-18.03)
(In accordance with the request of our business associates we are bound to conceal our February analytical notes from the general public. Since March, IISWU resumes spreading its reports, which are supposed to be published twice a month)
The expectations of a massive Russian offensive which cannot be successfully confronted by Ukrainian troops in their current condition have making political leaders of Ukraine to seek immediate measures to avert a military defeat.
Unfortunately, there seems to be no viable solution to the most alarming problems: decrease of the western military support which threatens to cause a huge deficit of ammunition; and shortage of the military manpower which can prevent installing reliable defense against Russian advance .
President Zelensky has called for the maintenance of Ukraine’s military capability “despite all the deficits”. https://www.president.gov.ua/news/mayemo-rozuminnya-yakij-u-voroga-chergovij-zadum-budemo-prot-89517 At the same time, he has also acknowledged publicly that the Ukrainian army experience difficulties, which can influence its ability to battle against the aggressor. Speaking in Kyiv, the Ukrainian president complained that western weapons were in short supply and Ukrainian troops were running out of ammunition. According to Zelensky, Ukrainian artilleries are currently firing one shell for every 7 unleashed by the Russian guns. (The Guardian Weekly, Vol 210, No 9, 1 March 2024). It should be noted, that this ratio is going to deteriorate and Russian firepower superiority over the Ukrainian army is certain to increase.
The drastic reduction of Western supplies might also bring about a mass social disappointment because the majority of Ukrainians (around 57%) believe that Western military and financial support is the most important factor for a successful outcome of the war. https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=rus&cat=reports&id=1380&page=2 The loss of hope for military accomplishments might result in a mass discontent which will affect the ability of the government to control the country. Now only 42% of those who consider Western support to be the most important factor, feel that “the West is tired of Ukraine and its support is weakening”. But the number can be expected to grow in the near future.
Dara Massicot in her article written for Foreign Affairs points out that, supposedly, weakness of Russia will not prevent it from winning the war if Kyiv is deprived of U.S. financial and military assistance. She emphasizes that after capturing of the strategically important town of Avdiivka, Russian forces have started to advance in other areas along the front. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-running-out-ukraine.
Russian troops might gain significant achievements due to their advantages in manpower, weapons and ammunition. Russian defense production has been growing, whereas U.S. arms and ammunition deliveries to Ukraine has been delayed for months thanks to blocking tactics by Republicans and are at risk of being dramatically reduced because of controversy in the U.S. Congress. The deficiency of critical munitions compels Ukrainian units to restrict the number of shots. Combined with a significant manpower shortage, it severely impacts military operations reducing the chances to repel Russian offensive.
Ukrainian troops have been forced to retreat to to the unprepared positions. In contrast with Russia, which constructed a network of defensive fortifications, Ukraine did nothing to fortify the new defense-lines in case of forced retreat. There can be little doubt that Ukraine’s battlefield position will continue to deteriorate. It is thought, that state of affairs on the battlefront is going to reach a critical point by this summer. It seems very unlikely that Ukrainian ammunition and manpower crisis will be solved, and Russian advances may result in breaches of Ukrainian defensive lines on strategically important directions.
Prominent defense analyst Konrad Muzyka visited several locations in Ukraine near the front lines and came to a conclusion that Ukrainian troops will not be able to degrade Russian forward momentum. According to Muzyka, Ukrainian forces are currently the at their lowest point since mid-2022. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-strategy-dig-in-soldiers-hope-/32860368.html
In recent weeks Russian troops have been attacking in five areas along the 1,100 km front line. It will be increasingly difficult to stop them if they manage to gain success in the Donbass region. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68493215
The plans to fortify new defense lines for the Ukrainian army have not been carried out. On December 1, 2023, Zelensky ordered to construct fortifications across the front. However, little has been done so far. Yuriy Butusov, one of the leading Ukrainian journalists, reported that construction works either were not commenced or reached only the initial level. The Ukrainian army does not have a required number of engineering units to complete the construction during the hostilities. And defense Minister Umerov does not want to annoy the office of the President with the demands, which are hard to fulfill. https://fakty.ua/ru/434323-ochen-mnogie-nashih-lyudej-ezhednevno-gibnet-iz-za-bezdejstviya-vlasti-yurij-butusov-ob-otsutstvii-stroitelstva-linij-oborony
Military analyst at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman stated that Ukraine does not have good secondary lines and Russian forces will have an opportunity to pass through Ukrainian defense lines in various locations if their general offensive has been halted. Former Ukrainian military spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov asserted that there are no lines of engineering fortifications to shelter personnel and equipment from enemy fire. Seleznyov is certain that “Ukrainain soldiers have become hostages to illegal decisions, or the absence of any decisions regarding the construction of fortifications”. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-strategy-dig-in-soldiers-hope-/32860368.html
The fortification failure can be regarded as a sign of inability of the Ukrainian government to execute even the most important decisions. Ukrainian political and military leaders have been blaming the shortage of weapons and ammunition for military non-achievements. Now they have started to predict that the situation on the battlefield will become significantly worse if Ukraine’s needs are not met (The Globe and Mail, March 4, 2024). It should be noted, that head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service (GUR) Budanov, who made that forecast, knew that the immediate changes are impossible, and the supply of ammunition cannot be increased in the near future. But it is obvious, even if the Ukrainian army had been given the opportunity to balance with Russian firepower, it could not have reached that goal because of extreme shortage of military personnel.
Zelensky and his team has been trying to convince the Ukrainian society that Russian troops are exhausted and the decisive military success should be expected in the near future. Without diminishing his popularity, he cannot admit that Ukrainian defense is now at risk of collapsing if five or at least three hundred thousand new conscripts are not sent to replenish the units on the front-line. Such a number of recruits can only be achieved through swift and severe measures, which would not be supported by public opinion. The Ukrainian government tried to get the mobilization bill approved by the parliament, but suspended the law making process for fear of public resentment. The bill was moderated in order to mollify its opponents. More than 4,000 amendments have been made to the mobilization bill, and now it would be impossible to use it for a rapid massive recruitment. It was declared that the the law would not be aimed at facilitating the process of enlistment for military service, as it had been projected initially. The main task of the document should be the regulation of military registration procedures. https://hvylya.net/uk/news/289419-v-rade-nazvali-glavnuyu-cel-novogo-zakona-o-mobilizacii The plans to ensure the constant supply of new recruits have failed, the new law will have little effect on the practical implementation of conscription process.
Ukrainian lawmakers confessed that they did not receive a clear message from the president about mobilization strategy, despite months of warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front. Meanwhile, severe recruiting efforts have sown panic among fighting-age men, some of whom have gone into hiding. (The Washington Post, March, 6, 2024).
Zelensky did not want to take responsibility for establishing the law, which authorizes the use of coercive measures against draft evaders. The president made an attempt to pass on responsibility to the parliament. But even the parliamentary group of the ruling pro-government party did not want to take the blame for the recruitment practice which was certain to provoke public discontent. Ukrainian political leaders do not have clear comprehension of what they should do to preserve ability to battle back against Russian aggression and replace the resources wasted in the hopeless offensive. President Zelensky and his top military commanders have failed so far to come up with a clear plan to replenish the fighting units, though they continue to demand the continuation of hostilities until the capitulation of Russia.
In recent weeks the situation has become more complicated because as the battle of Avdiivka has shown, the exhausted Ukrainian troops on the front-line are losing the resilience to heavy losses. The lack of fortifications, the shortage of ammunition and personnel are fomenting a strategic crisis of Ukraine’s military forces. But the political strategy of the President was aimed primarily at preventing military commanders from blaming the government for the unprepared withdrawal.
Zaluzhny’s demand to work out a mobilization strategy, which would allow to increase significantly the number of military personnel on the front-line, seems to be a major factor of his dismissal in February. The new Commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, so far has not brought up this matter.
In recent months Zelensky has replaced both the defense minister and the Commander in chief, strengthening the influence of head of the president’s office Andriy Yermak on the armed forces. Both Umerov, the current Defence Minister, and Syrsky, the incumbent commander-in-chief, are considered to be associates of Andriy Yermak. Budanov, the chief of military intelligence, don’t miss an opportunity to demonstrate that he and are bound by the sense of mutual sympathy.
The dismissal of Zaluzhny was reported to make a negative impact on the attitude toward the government in the armed forces. It was assumed that Zaluzhny was discharge because he tried to stay independent (The Washington Post, March 8, 2024).
Zaluzhny remains extremely popular in Ukraine and can be considered to be the only potential rival to the President. Zelensky denied that he dismissed Zaluzhnyi because the Commander-in-Chief was regarded as his probable political contender https://amp.lenta.ua/zelenskiy-poyasniv-chomu-zvilniv-zaluzhnogo-153592/ However, the President has all the reasons to be alarmed at the prospect of political competition with the leader of the Ukrainian military. According to the survey, conducted by the political sociology company SOCIS has shown that 46,4% of those who intend to vote would support the hypothetical party led by Zaluzhny if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were to take place. The president’s party would gain only 21,1%. In the presidential election, Zaluzhny would be supported by 41,4% of those who intend to vote, and Zelensky by 23,7% https://socis.kiev.ua/ua/2024-03-05.
Zelensky appointed Zaluzhny as Ukraine’s new ambassador to Britain in order to expel him from Ukrainian political scene. This position might seem influential because UK has taken a leading role in supplying weaponry to Ukraine. But it should be take into account that Ukrainian diplomats are not allowed to express any doubts about actions of the President. Previous ambassador to Britain Vadym Prystaiko, an experienced diplomat, was remove, after he had criticized “unhealthy sarcasm” of Zelensky’s public insinuations about insufficiency of Western military support.
Zelensky’s political strategy is focused on preserving his political dominance, his military decisions and interaction with political institutions are subordinated to political expediency. Such an attitude impedes implementation of a coherent strategy, which excludes contradictory actions.
The decision to aggravate economic and social problems in Russia by creating fuel shortages thanks to damaging of oil refineries might turn out to be very effective. On the night of March 13, the Security Service of Ukraine attacked three Russian oil refineries at once – in Ryazan (belongs to Rosneft), the city of Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, belongs to Lukoil) and Kirishi (Leningrad Oblast, belongs to Surgutneftegas). Moreover, the oil refinery of the Lukoil company in the Nizhny Novgorod region lost part of its capacity as a result of a drone strike https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/03/13/novyna/bezpeka/sbu-atakuvala-dronamy-try-pyaty-najbilshyx-rosijskyx-npz-zmi?utm_source=gravitec&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=. The attacked refineries are among the five largest in Russia and they are owned by the largest oil-producers. In the following days, some other important refineries were damaged, including the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery, the largest in southern Russia, which had to suspended its operations.
Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has attacked more than a dozen oil and gas facilities — including refineries, oil depots and gas terminals — in seven regions (The Washington Post, March 14, 2024). The inability of Putin’s regime to prevent airstrikes causing damage to industrial objects and infrastructure can stir up social discontent in Russia and increase popular demand for peace. But the desired effects of the airstrikes can be nullified by the attacks of the so called Russian volunteer formations on Russian territory. On March 12, the Legion “Freedom of Russia”, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Battalion issued a joint statement, declaring the start of their military operations in Belgorod and Kursk regions and urging the inhabitants of Belgorod and Kursk to leave the cities. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/zaklikaemo-negajno-zalishiti-mista-rosijski-dobrovoltsi-anonsuvali-udari-po-belgorodu-j-kursku-i-zvernulisya-do-naselennya.htm?utm_source=wpush&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=webpush
These operations cannot be expected to produce favorable military outcomes, but they have already been used by the Russian regime as proof of Western and Ukrainian intentions to destroy and divide Russian state, mobilizing his supporters. It was an additional mistake to organize a convention in support of Russian volunteers on March 17, the last day of Russian presidential elections, and to invite Budanov, who is demonized by Russian media, to give a speech at this gathering. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/633817-nova-faza-borotbi-budanov-vistupiv-na-forumi-pidtrimki-rosiyskih-dobrovolciv
Forecast of further development of the conflict:
The Ukrainian government is trying to persuade the public that the Russian troops have been weakened and will not be able to achieve any accomplishments on the battlefield. It seems to be the main reason of comparatively high support of the idea of continuation of hostilities until restoration of borders as of 1991. This support is gradually fading away, but it still hinders the spread of the public sentiment for the immediate ceasefire.
Since Ukraine has lost its military, financial and demographic potential to continue the war, the key to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lies in the hands of Western partners. In order to prevent the defeat of Ukrainian army on the battlefield, it is necessary to persuade Ukrainian public to accept the idea of immediate ceasefire and to coax China, India and Turkey to urge Putin’s regime to bring hostilities to an end.
It should be done as soon as possible, because Ukrainian forces will not be able to hold their positions in 2024 without urgent replenishment of ammunition and manpower, which seems to be unachievable in the near future. If the ceasefire is not established, the Ukrainian defense lines might be breached by middle of the summer. The Ukrainian government will not be able to generate more manpower, because the severe measures to intensify recruitment process would undermine Zelensky’s popularity. If the Russian assault on the current defense-lines turns out to be successful, further Russian advance will be extremely difficult to stop due to the lack of manpower.
The failure of Ukrainian attempts to liberate significant territory and recent Russian achievements on the battlefield have induced changes in the Ukrainian public opinion, increasing the number of those who support the idea of ceasefire. Public expectations are becoming increasingly at odds with the actions of the government, which is trying to continue the war at all cost in order to preserve Zelensky’s political dominance.
The President will keep on destroying political institutions, because he cannot use them to achieve his purposes anymore. The work of the Parliament might become disorganized due to the growing dysfunction of the ruling party, and it can lose lose the ability to take important decisions.
Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:
It is important to ensure the spreading the idea of ceasefire in the Ukrainian media, which cam be done only by European politicians and media-persons. The Ukrainian public should be persuaded that in current circumstances only ceasefire can provide an opportunity to re-equip the Ukrainian army and fortify the defense lines.
The ceasefire can be established only through negotiations arranged and supported by the Western partners of Ukraine. It is necessary to prepare European and Ukrainian public opinion for the negotiations on ceasefire, regardless of intentions of Zelensky and his associates. It should be noted that the idea of ceasefire can be accepted by the Ukrainian society only if it is enthusiastically supported by leading EU countries.
The European institutions should prevent destruction of political institutions in Ukraine intensifying connections with Ukrainian parliamentary groups and assisting them in organizing decision-making process without interference from the government.