Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (01.09 – 30.09)

In his speech to the UN General Assembly Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia (which was called “the aggressor” by him) should be defeated. He urge the UN members to stay united and focus their efforts on confronting challenges caused by Russia’s disrespect to the international law. He argued that the deals between the “great powers” cannot guarantee lasting peace in Ukraine, which can be obtained only through the implementation of the Ukrainian peace formula. According to  Zelensky, “for the first time in modern history”, there is a chance to “end the aggression on the terms of the nation which was attacked”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/full-text-zelenskyys-speech-to-the-un-general-assembly

Zelensky continued to insist that Russian should be overpowered at the Security Council high-level meeting on the situation in Ukraine on September 24. He declared that Russia can only be forced into peace, “and that is exactly what is needed to be done“. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/09/1154791

Before his visit to the US which lasted from 22 to 27 September, Zelensky had raised expectations in the Ukrainian public that his ‘victory plan’ would be approved and accepted by the US administration. It was anticipated to bring about a significant increase in military aid and financial support from Washington. Ukrainian experts and officials predicted that the US administration would remove restrictions on the use of weapons supplied by the US.

 

In that respect Zelensky’s visit ti the US can be regarded as a complete failure. Though Zelensky’s  ‘victory plan’ has not been published, it has been made known that it allegedly includes an invitation to join NATO as one of security guarantees to Ukraine, a permission to carry out  missile strikes deep into Russia and an authorization to use US-made long-range missiles for that purpose.

None of those goals was achieved. Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ obviously failed to persuade the Biden administration to increase US military support for Ukraine and lift the limitations on the use of missiles against targets deep within the Russian territory. Krzysztof Nieczypor and Andrzej Kohut experts of Poland-based Center for Eastern Studies (OSW)  concluded that the Biden administration most likely did not endorse the “victory plan”, despite that the US has announced the launch of a military support package for Kyiv worth approximately $8 bn, (this sum comes from a $61 bn package provided in April).  https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2024-09-27/zelensky-visits-us-a-diplomatic-failure-rather-a-victory-plan

 

Zelensky’s tour of US not only failed to impel Democrats to immediate measures support to Ukraine but also annoyed Republicans who regarded Zelensky’s visit to an ammunition plant in Pennsylvania as an action in behalf of Democrats. Republican perception of Zelensky’s preferences would jeopardize the continuation of American support for Kyiv should Trump win the election. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson called on the Ukrainian President to fire Ukrainian ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova. Mike Johnson described Zelenskyy’s visit to an ammunition plant in Pennsylvania, a swing-state, as “a partisan campaign event designed to help Democrats” and declared it to be “an election interference”. https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-johnson-ambassador-ukraine-biden-harris-trump-d81b0a055d99cfd4804b3f2c00915d09

Although the meeting between Zelensky and Trump could help to mitigate Republican attitude towards Ukraine, it could not change Trump’s stance on the issue of military and financial support to Ukraine. It should be noted that US right-wing commentators remain critical of the Ukrainian President.

 

Ukraine has no opportunity to continue successful resistance to Russian invasion without significant increase of financial and military support from the US. Meanwhile, the incumbent US administration seems reluctant to provide additional assistance and in case of Trump’s victory the level of support can be diminished. In spite of frightful circumstances, Zelensky keeps on rejecting the idea of a cease-fire without any preliminary conditions, though he sometimes feels obliged to pay lip service to the plans of a peaceful reconciliation. The “victory plan” that Zelensky has been trying to present as the only way to end the war cannot be accomplished because it requires a complete military defeat of Russia.      

 

Zelensky and his closest associate Yermak continue to strengthen their political positions inside the country, eliminating all independent figures from the political figures and preventing the emergence of any potential rivals. The reshuffle of the Ukrainian government in early September resulted in the expulsion of one of the most influential members of the government, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitro Kuleba, who have held his post since March 2020. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna additionally acquired the post of the of the minister of justice, because former minister Denys Maliuska had to resign. Maliuska, who served as the minister since August 2019, was appointed before Yermak’s elevation to the head of the president’s office.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Andrey Yermakhis as his closest ally, are considered to be the initiators and the main beneficiaries of the cabinet reshuffle. https://www.ft.com/content/4a37ac46-d3ee-42ec-8694-dc88059d7f36

Besides consolidation of power by appointing loyalists and expulsion of  Kuleba, who has developed independent associations and personal connections with influential Western politicians, Zelensky and Yermak used sweeping changes in the government to give the impression that the dismissed ministers had made mistakes, and now the president is going to make things right and improve the state of affairs.

Prominent political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko surmised that Zelensky had previously considered dismissing the entire government, from Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on down. But the president was unable to accomplish that because of wartime restrictions under martial law. Fesenko believes that Zelensky and Yermak are becoming too powerful. Nevertheless, the EU and the US will continue to provide assistance for Ukraine in the hope of a democracy reboot as soon as war is over and elections are held,  https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-backlash-government-reshuffle-opposition-war-in-ukraine/

Zelensky declared that the the cabinet reshuffle is aimed at strengthening “some areas in the Government” and “certain areas of our foreign and domestic policies will have a slightly different emphasis”. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/rosijski-udari-budut-nemozhlivi-yaksho-dlya-nas-bude-mozhliv-92997

It is hard to understand what the “new emphasis” will look like in Ukraine’s foreign relations. But it should be taken into account that Kuleba traveled to China at the invitation of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in July and became the highest-ranking Ukrainian official to visit China since Russia’s full-scale invasion started in February 2022. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/04/ukraines-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-resigns

 

The cabinet reshuffle was preceded by several difficult months during which the Ukrainian army  has lost ground in the Donetsk region and the cities throughout Ukraine suffered prolonged blackouts because of Russian air strikes on the energy infrastructure. The situation on the battlefield has deteriorated sharply, especially in Donetsk region, where Russian forces captured the town of Vuhledar.

Vuhledar has strategic significance because of its high ground and location near the junction of the two main fronts, in eastern and southern Ukraine. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/ukraine-war-briefing-moscow-pensioner-outrage-at-disgrace-of-huge-spending-on-war

Though, the loss of Vuhledar is unlikely to lead to serious change on the front line, it will allow Russian troops to improve logistics efficiency and will impede logistics processes for Ukrainian forces fighting in the region. Military expert and reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan stated that Vuhledar was a bridgehead from which Ukrainian artillery could reach the Volnovakha railway junction and branch line”. According to Svitan, after the fall of Vuhledar the only way to reach the land corridor to Zaporizhzhia and on to the Kherson region and Crimea will be with expensive and scarce HIMARS shells and missiles. It compels to regard the loss of Vuhledar as s serious setback for the Ukrainian army.” https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/10/03/the-fall-of-vuhledar-en

The Russian army currently has a strategic advantage and there is no indication of the improvement on the strategic directions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have nothing to oppose the free-fall aerial bombing and are heavily affected by ground troops shortage and weariness.

Radio Svoboda Ukraine reported that the soldiers, who are holding positions in the Kupiansk district (in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region), appealed to the editorial office for help. They are complaining  that their unit lack people, which endangers its ability to retain positions, and they have to remain on the front-line “without rotation, food and sometimes water”.  https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/problemy-tro-zvernennya-biytsiv-batalyonu-114-bryhady/33153289.html

 

The Ukrainian government is still unable face the reality and admit that the situation on the battlefield is certain to aggravate and cannot be improved through military actions.

The fall of Vuhledar, which Russia portrays as one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in southern Donetsk, opens the way for Russian forces to advance on other places. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-significant-would-russias-capture-ukrainian-town-vuhledar-be-2024-10-01/

 

Forecast of further development of the conflict:

 

• In spite of  Zelensky’s efforts, the US and the EU neither endorsed so called “victory plan”, nor increased military support, giving permission to use long-range missiles against the targets deep inside Russia. Zelensky cannot admit that his expectations turned out to be baseless and will increase his pressure on the US administration in order to make it meet his demands. It might increase tension between Kyiv and Washington. In that case even victory of Harris would not guarantee the significant increase of military support required for the continuation of hostilities.

 

• The UAF will not be able to retain their current positions, especially after the fall of Vuhledar, which will allow Russian troops to improve logistics and intensify activities on other directions.

 

• The concentration of power in the hands of Zelensky and oppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church pose serious threats to democratic institutions and increase danger of social unrest. It seems to be senseless and dangerous to expect that the Ukrainian democracy would be renewed after the war. It should be protected now.

 

Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:

 

• An immediate ceasefire should be established as soon as possible while Ukrainian forced can retain their current positions. The Ukrainian government should be made to accept reality and the Chinese political leaders should be persuaded to put pressure on Russia.

 

• The independent political figures in Ukraine should be given political support by the EU institutions in order to counter-balance the concentration of power in the hands of the president and the head of president’s office. The and steps should be taken to make the Ukrainian government cancel the ban of the UOC and permit their religious activity.