Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (01.08- 31.08)
Volodymyr Zelenskyi stated in his address on the occasion of the Independence Day of Ukraine that Putn will never be able to boss about Ukraine and called him “the sick grandfather from Red Square, who constantly threatens everyone with a red button”. https://www.president.gov.ua/news/zvernennya-volodimira-zelenskogo-z-nagodi-dnya-nezalezhnosti-92805
Such an insult made in an formal speech was deliberately purposed to exclude the possibility of any peace propositions of ceasefire which might have followed Ukraine’s military success in Russia’s Kursk region. Putin is well-known to be easily offended by personal remarks and Zelenskyi’s statement prevented the Russian government from consideration of the possibility of ceasefire.
It can be clearly seen that both warring sides use the advantages they gain on the battlefield not to make the adversary ti stop the hostilities but to intensify the conflict. In spite of their inability to achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield, Russian and Ukrainian governments seem to carry on war until the enemy is exhausted or confronted by unmanageable economic and political problems.
Zelenskyi continues to reject the possibility of negotiations with Russia. He noted at the “Ukraine 2024. Independence” forum that the dialogue with the Russian dictator. He stated that all attempts to communicate with Putin will be meaningless and unproductive. The Ukrainian president also declared that the military operation in the Kursk region “helped Ukraine very much” and reduced the number of those who would like to reach a compromise with Russia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfYXPOVCuWM
Ukraine’s military success in the Kursk region cannot have a strong impact on the course of the war because it did not make the Kremlin to withdraw the troops from Donbass in order to block the Ukrainian offensive on Russian territory. It could have been used to compel the Russian government to start negotiations of the ceasefire because of the growing public discontent with the war. Instead of it, it is being exploited to strengthen the positions of the supporters of the idea of the indefinite continuation of hostilities both in Ukraine and Russia.
It was reported that the Ukrainian offensive helped to increase the influence of Igor Sechin, the head of “Rosneft” state corporation, who is considered to be one of the main promoters of the idea of war until final victory.
Rosneft’s press secretary Leontiev said that Ukraine’s military operation in the Kursk region actually became an advantage because it helped to stop discussions on the possibility of negotiations. The prominent Russian political analyst Abbas Gallyamov considers this remark to be a prove of the strong positions of supporters of negotiations who could threaten Sechin’s plans in spite of his close connection with Putin. https://t.me/abbasgallyamovpolitics/5865
The Ukrainian government keeps on trying to isolate and denigrate all social groups that can support the idea of an immediate ceasefire in order to nullify their public influence. A new step on that path was made by prohibiting an activity of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) which was connected with the Moscow patriarchate before the beginning of the war.
The UOC declared in the spring of 2022 that it had broken away from Moscow. But the Ukrainian government claims that the UOC remains connected with the enemy despite that there are now proves of that. The UOC, along with most congregations and clergy in the country, has been banned by the Ukrainian parliament which will deprive parishers of their religious rights and undermine their motivations to endure war difficulties.
The attempt to exclude the (UOK)from public life once and for all because of its alleged proximity to Russia is driven by the intention of Zelensky to secure the domination of his political discourse. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ukraine/kirchenverbot-in-ukraine-weht-in-der-orthodoxen-kirche-noch-moskaus-geist-19941640.html
Though the President’s office controls the parliament the law banning the UOC was voted against not only by opposition groups The “Platform for Life and Peace” and the Restoration of Ukraine, but also by 3 deputies from the ruling party “Servants of the People”. Besides, many pro-presidential deputies abstained and the president’s party gave only 173 votes for the law (with a fraction of 233 deputies).
It seems that deputies connected with Southern and Eastern regions expect a negative public reaction the law which was aimed to undermine the Russian influence but threatens to aggravate the divide in the Ukrainian society and deteriorate human rights situation. In case of the Ukraine military defeat in the Donbass region which appears to be almost inevitable the public discontent will lead eventually to severe political crisis.
David Axe, a political journalist who writes for Forbes, thinks that Ukrainian commanders failed to achieve the main goal of the offensive in Russia’s Kursk region. It was supposed to make the Kremlin draw some of the best Russian brigades away from eastern Ukraine and relieve pressure on Ukrainian troops in the most vulnerable eastern sectors. It means that Ukraine’s defensive campaign in the east can be lost and the town of Pokrovsk, an important transport hub, can be captured by Russian troops. Pokrovsk lies astride the main Ukrainian supply lines west of Donetsk. If this key logistical center is occupied by Russians, Ukrainian forces fighting in Donbas will have to withdraw from the region because their positions will become untenable. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/25/ignoring-the-ukrainian-invasion-of-kursk-russian-regiments-keep-their-eyes-on-a-major-ukrainian-prize-pokrovsk/
The Russian offensive has been delivering steady territorial gains for the last six weeks. It appears to be impossible to prevent the capture of the town, because the Kremlin did not remove the troops from Donbas and send them the Kursk region as it had been expected. The falling of Pokrovsk will result in a wider collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the east, and in that case the Russian assault in Donbas will gather momentum. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region should have been aimed at creating the conditions for negotiations on ceasefire. If these goals remain neglected, the current military success will inevitably turn into a failure.
Troops urgently needed in Pokrovsk were moved away from their defensive positions to attack Russia, due to the hopes that after the Kursk offensive Russian forces would be redirected. Such expectations proved to be false, the advance on Ukraine’s east has only intensified since the military operations were launched in the Kursk region. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/23/ukraine-pokrovsk-russia-advance-civilians-flee
It should be noted that Zelenskyi announced that the goal of the operation in the Kursk is to force Russia to end the war through diplomatic means. The advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into Russian territory has been expected to strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position and help to end the war with a dialogue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfYXPOVCuWM
Former Ambassador of Ukraine to the European Union Andriy Veselovsky indicated in his comment on this statement of the Ukrainian president that Zelenskyi can really believe that the operation will bring Ukraine closer to peace. But it is hard to tell if there are good reasons for such expectations because Zelenskyi’s plans for further stages of the operation are still unknown. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/pres-konferentsiya-zelenskoho-kursk-raketa-temy/33094657.html
Ukraine’s economic and financial situation continues to deteriorate. Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘RD’ from ‘C’. Fitch has withdrawn the issue ratings of Ukraine’s foreign-currency bonds as they are no longer considered to be relevant to the agency’s coverage. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-ukraine-to-rd-13-08-2024
Ukraine is going to face new difficulties in obtaining in financial aid from Germany because German public opinion has been steadily shifting towards backing peace in Ukraine. Owen Matthews in his article in “The Spectator” supposed that the revelations about Ukraine’s key role in the Nord Stream explosion can aggravate the wide-spread doubts about the appropriateness of further military and economic assistance to Ukraine. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-we-now-have-proof-ukraine-blew-up-the-nord-stream-pipelines/
Forecast of further development of the conflict
Kyiv was mistaken in its expectations that due to the offensive in the Kursk region Russian troops would be removed from Donbas. The impact of the Ukrainian offensive on the general situation turned out to be insufficient to hamper Russian assault in Donbas which can lead to capture of Pokrovsk and collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the region. However, Ukraine’s military success in Donbas could have been used for starting negotiations aimed at establishing a ceasefire. But Kyiv continues to ignore an opportunity to put forward its truce proposals and has come at risk of missing it altogether.
The banning of UOC will undermine the positions of opposition parties connected with the Eastern and Southern regions, but it will inevitably increase the tensions in the Ukrainian society. Moreover, millions of the UOC adherents will become less motivated to endure hardships of war or fight on the front lines against advancing Russian troops.
The upcoming military defeat in Donbas, economic crisis and financial disaster might result in civil disorder, which the Ukrainian government will not be able to pacify because it lacks required political instruments and lost a large part of public support. Besides, actions of the government will be restricted by a legitimacy deficit of all Ukrainian state institutions. The legal term of office of the Ukrainian parliament expired in the end of august.
Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:
The idea of the immediate ceasefire should be promoted publicly in Europe and the Ukrainian government has to be strongly advised not to obstruct the expression of this idea in the Ukrainian media.
The human rights situation in Ukraine should be given more attention and steps should be taken to protect clerics and adherents of the UOC from the prosecution for their religious activity.
The political and military support of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region should depend on willingness of the Ukrainian government to offer Russia ceasefire negotiations.