Political activity, political impact of social problems and war effects (18.03- 31.03)
The Ukrainian government has been starting to realize that Ukrainian troops have little chance to repel a new Russian offensive. The Ukrainian political and military leaders are trying to lay the responsibility defeat for military failures on the insufficient Western assistance and find a way to ensure Western support after a probable defeat. Besides, the attempts are being made to prevent a decline of political legitimacy of the President, who cannot conduct the new elections without a potential risk of losing them.
In order to create an illusion that it is possible to form a more efficient government without the elections, Zelenskyy has started to reshuffle key political positions, replacing the officials who are regarded as his close political allies. In this respect the most important events are recent dismissals of the President’s first assistant Serhiy Shefir Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexey Danilov. They both served in their former positions since 2019. Moreover, Shefir, who before his appointment as a first assistant to the president had been an influential person in the Ukrainian show business, was a business partner of Zelenskyy during his career as a comedian and a TV personality. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-zelenskyy-sacks-senior-aide-advisors-in-reshuffle/a-68705909
Shefir was the producer of the series “Servant of the People,” in which Zelenskyy played the role of the President of Ukraine. The series started Zelenskyy’s ascension to the presidency and during his campaign he successfully used the image of the main character, a common person who wants to save the country from the widespread corruption. Shefir became one of the top managers of Zelensky’s election headquarters and after Zelensky’s victory he was appointed to the position of the President’s first assistant. https://www.svoboda.org/a/zelenskiy-uvolil-svoego-pomoschnika-shefira—byvshego-kollegu-po-kvn/32884536.html
Danilov, who headed the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), always tried to prove that he wasa devoted member of Zelenskyy’s team. Danilov made the NSDC function as an instrument of suppression of President’s rivals and opponents. Danilov took the initiative to impose economic sanctions upon pro-Russian politicians (although they remained Ukrainian citizens) and the media controlled by them.
In addition, the NSDC investigated the activity of Ukrainian oligarchs restricting their political and media investments.
Dismissals of Shefir and Danilov should be considered as a certain concession from Zelenskyy to other Ukrainian political groups, which had strong reasons to be anxious about the intentions of the NSDC and the Office of the President.
Danilov was replaced with Alexander Litvinenko, who had been the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine since August 2021. Litvinenko is considered to be a skilled analyst, who does not have any personal political affiliations. It means that the NSDC might become an advisory body (as it had been before Zelenskyy’s administration) and cease intervening in the internal political disagreements on behalf of the President.
Zelenskyy promised that the Ukraine’s governance structure will be completely reinvigorated in the near future. https://www.dw.com/ru/ekssekretar-snbo-danilov-stanet-poslom-ukrainy-v-moldove/a-68701842
It should be noted that Zelenskyy appointed Danilov as Ukraine’s ambassador to Moldova, which seems to be significantly inferior in comparison to the position of the ambassador to the UK offered to Zaluzhnyi. It can be suggested that Zelenskyy wanted to grant Danilov immunity from the activity of anti-corruption agencies, which are not controlled by the President. It might be expected that in case of military defeat the deficit of political legitimacy will restrict the President from defending his associates against anti-corruption investigation. Consequently, some members of Zelenskyy’s team could start seeking more shielded positions, which would lead to further decline of his political influence.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office has launched an investigation against one of the formed advisors to the Office of the President of Ukraine, which might beset the President’s office. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/04/02/novyna/ekonomika/zavolodinnya-majzhe-95-mln-hrn-uz-vykryto-kolyshnoho-radnyka-ofisu-prezydenta?utm_source=gravitec&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=
In his interview with the Washington Post Zelenskyy has declared that without support from the US, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be forced to retreat. It is obvious, that American military assistance is not going to be increased in the near future. Therefore the retreat is considered to be inevitable even the Ukrainian President.
Zelenskyy also expressed his apprehensions over the ability of Russian troops to reach large cities if they succeed in breaking through the current defensive lines. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/29/ignatius-zelensky-interview-ukraine-aid-russia/
This warning correlates with conclusion made by the Economist, that there is a strong chance of Russian significant advance during the upcoming offensive. There is an alarming possibility that a new Russian offensive in the next few months could break Ukrainian defenses and enable further penetration of the Russian country into the country. Since the fall of Avdiivka, Russian forces have been pressing hard in Eastern Ukraine, preventing Ukrainian troops from forming stronger defensive lines there. A bigger Russian push, which is expected in the summer would be successfully confronted only if Ukraine could deal with three priorities manpower, fortifications and ammunition (The Economist, March 30, p.21).
Ukraine seems incapable of solving these problems and there is no doubt that the Ukrainian government comprehends the possible repercussions of Russian success.
In his interview with CBS Zelenskyy for the first time accepted the idea of negotiations with Putin without restoring Ukraine to its internationally recognized borders. He expressed confidence that Putin would be “ready for dialogue” if Russia loses all the territories it has occupied since 2022. According to Zelensky, it would allow to establish a truce and “there will be no need” to liberate the remaining territories under Russian control “by military means.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AotK8D9AG-I
It could have been regarded as an important change in Ukraine’s approach to the idea of ceasefire if there had not been a danger of Ukraine’s military defeat, which would make impossible the liberation of any territories under Russian control.
Seymour Myron “Sy” Hersh is an American investigative journalist and political writer stated that the Ukraine could be nearing to a military defeat. The Ukrainian military is undermanned and under-equipped and Ukraine military is facing the permanent loss of four regions, which are claimed by the Kremlin. https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/the-iron-clad-pinata
Zelenskyy acknowledged that the invading Russian army is much better supplied.
Ukrainian troops do not have enough artillery rounds and are not prepared to defend against another major Russian offensive expected in the coming months. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-says-putin-will-threaten-nato-quickly-if-not-stopped/
However, the main problem of the Ukrainian army seems to be the shortage of the military personnel and there is no opportunity to solve it without drastic measures.
The new law on mobilization does not authorize the use of coercive measures against draft evaders.
Fedor Venislavsky, a member of the parliamentary group of the “Servant of the People” party, acknowledged that because of the amendments, almost all of the measures aimed to enforce mobilization have actually “disappeared”. https://www.unian.net/politics/mobilizaciya-v-ukraine-kogda-rada-mozhet-golosovat-za-zakonoproekt-o-mobilizacii-12588123.html
The Ukrainian society does not approve the idea of mass mobilization and the government did not take the initiative to make it compulsory. It is indicated by the data of a survey conducted by the Institute of Social and Political Psychology of NAPS together with the Association of Political Psychologists of Ukraine. More than half of the respondents (53.9%) agree with the statement “mobilization evaders can be understood – no one wants to die.” Residents of the southern regions are ready to show the greatest loyalty in this matter, more than 70% of them believe that those who want to evade mobilization can be understood. https://news.obozrevatel.com/society/ponimanie-ili-styid-opros-pokazal-kak-ukraintsyi-otnosyatsya-k-uklonistam-ot-mobilizatsii.htm
Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk, who was elected with the support of Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ party, in his interview with CNN, declared that there is no opportunity to conduct any national elections in the near future. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/30/europe/ukraine-election-zelensky-intl/index.html The recent national polls show that the majority society does not approve the idea of elections, because they could case a political crisis which would be exploited by the Kremlin. Although, there is no public demand for the elections, there is a clear sign that the public attitude to the government has been changing. The President despite the lack of any serious rivals is not considered any more to be a political leader who can comfortably win elections and prevent political disturbance .
Forecast of further development of the conflict:
The Ukrainian government can be rearranged in the near future and new figures can be brought to power in order to create an impression that it is going to be reinvigorated despite the lack of elections. There are serious reasons to doubt that it would help to stop the decline of political legitimacy of the government, but it might provoke disagreement and competition between political groups close to the President.
The probable military defeat of Ukrainian army caused by shortage of manpower, ammunition and fortifications would undermine the political legitimacy of the President. The anti-corruption investigations, which cannot be avoided by the President’s office could accelerate this process, which might result in political crisis with unpredictable consequences.
Recommendations for the European institutions and organizations:
It seems urgent to work out a plan aimed at stabilizing political and social situation in Ukraine in case of military defeat. The Ukrainian army should be provided with realistic military strategy that takes in consideration the inability of Ukraine’s government to solve the problems of personnel and ammunition shortage.
Despite the lack of public demand for the new elections, the Ukrainian government has to be persuaded to conduct them, because it seems to be the only way to increase its legitimacy. If this problem is not solved, the European institutions, which after actual withdrawal of the US administration bear main responsibility for the state of affairs in Ukraine, would have to deal of political crisis combined with severe military problems.